Machinepower Index / Dossiers / China
China
Total Sovereignty — Own every layer — energy, fabs, frontier models, talent and the rules they run under. Only two nations can afford the attempt, and neither reaches true autarky.
Score = the average of Watts, Weights and Will, minus a bottleneck penalty of 0.2 × the weakest axis's distance from 10. Potential = the average alone. The gap between them is what fixing the bottleneck is worth.
The three layers
Energy, grids, data centres and silicon — the physical capacity to run models at scale.
Models, alignment capability, standards influence and the talent that produces them.
The capacity to wire AI into the state and the economy while holding public consent.
Where the score comes from
Each axis is the straight average of its four measured sub-dimensions. Nothing is weighted inside an axis; every number below is a rubric-judged 0–10 assessment against published sources under twelve months old.
| Layer | Sub-dimension | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Watts | Planning & Permitting | 9.8 |
| Firm Power Capacity | 9.9 | |
| Sovereign Compute | 8.7 | |
| Hardware & Silicon Access | 6.2 | |
| Weights | Frontier Model Output | 9.1 |
| Alignment Capability | 9.0 | |
| Regulatory Standing | 9.1 | |
| Talent Density | 8.6 | |
| Will | State Procurement | 7.6 |
| Public Sector Adoption | 4.9 | |
| Workforce Transition | 8.6 | |
| Public Trust | 9.7 |
Bottlenecks
The weakest axis sets the penalty. These are the constraints that hold China below its Potential.
Assessment
China leads in material power and state-led diffusion. Its ability to build infrastructure at scale is unmatched. The primary risk is intelligence power, specifically access to high-end compute and international standard-setting influence.
The art of the possible
China's path runs through silicon: each indigenous lithography and accelerator breakthrough converts its unmatched build-speed and state diffusion into genuine full-stack sovereignty. If domestic chips close on the frontier, its bottleneck largely dissolves.
Strategic play — Total Sovereignty
Own every layer — energy, fabs, frontier models, talent and the rules they run under. Only two nations can afford the attempt, and neither reaches true autarky.
The play is editorial, not scored: it names the game China's measured position supports. Eight plays run across the Index — Total Sovereignty, Strategic Autonomy, Chokepoint Leverage, Diffusion Advantage, Compute Rentier, Specialist Power, Sovereign Capital and Siege Autarky.
Open China in the live Index → — full provenance cards, source dates, comparison tool and CSV export.