Leverage — what the world must come to you for

Mahan’s argument had two halves.

Mahan, 1890: Britain ruled the sea by holding the places ships had to pass.

Alfred Thayer Mahan argued that Britain did not rule the sea because it had the most ships, but because it held Gibraltar, Suez, the Cape and the coaling stations between them. The ambitious powers took the expensive lesson and built fleets. Russia spent twenty years on one and lost it in an afternoon at Tsushima.

“Five keys lock up the world.”

Admiral Sir John Fisher, 1904

The five positions Fisher named

THE MARITIME POSITIONSc. 1904

Drag to turn the globe

Compare the sea routes Via Suez Around the Cape Both routes

01 / THE CHANNEL

Dover

A short passage beside a great naval base.

Dover sits beside the route between the Atlantic and the North Sea.

What the position offered

A fortified base and naval presence could influence traffic using the passage.

Could ships go around it?

Ships could sail around the north of Britain.

1 / 5

Select a position for what it offered, and whether ships could go around it. Routes are schematic.

Fisher’s positions were garrisons and coaling stations: small things that decided big ones. A position is leverage only for as long as you can hold it.

The Index measures the fleet. The register maps the positions.

Mahan’s two halves, and where each is measured

Half one

The fleet

What a nation can build, power and run on its own.

Nations scored26

Measurements each12

Cells judged from evidence123

Scored in the Index →

Half two · you are here

The positions

What everyone else has to come through, and who can close it.

Chokepoints on the register12

Of those, used at least once9

Nations holding any7

An example below ↓

Sources: Machinepower Index; chokepoint register. At the time of this update.

Two machinepowers, and everyone else.

For twenty-four of twenty-six nations, sovereignty is not on offer at any budget this decade.

Two nations stand apart. The gap from second to third is bigger than the gap from first to second.

The Score at the top

8.26

United States. First of 26.

Machinepower Index · at the time of this update

7.89

China. Second.

Machinepower Index · at the time of this update

0.67

The gap from second to third. South Korea is third, at 7.22.

Machinepower Index · at the time of this update

Every ranked Score on one lineTier 1Tier 2Tier 3

Potential

Score

Hover a dot for that nation’s dossier card.

For a middle power, the real choice is between dependence and leverage: build something others need, then use it to widen your choices.

Lithography.

No leading-edge chip can be made without an EUV lithography machine. Four countries control what goes into one.

ASML in the Netherlands is the only company that makes the machines. The mirrors inside come from ZEISS in Germany. Japan supplies the resist and the tools that coat it. The patterns are drawn with American design software. Scroll to open the machine.

1 of 4 · Netherlands

The machine that prints it.

EUV lithography. The only supplier in the world. ASML is the only company that makes extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. No leading-edge chip can be made anywhere without them, so Dutch export licensing decides who is allowed to build advanced silicon at all.

Has blocked exports

Netherlands dossier →

2 of 4 · United States

First, a pattern.

Chip design software. Two firms, most of the market. Almost no advanced chip is designed without American electronic design automation tools. Withdrawing them stops a design programme before any silicon exists, and Washington has done exactly that.

Has blocked exports

United States dossier →

3 of 4 · Germany

Light that cannot use a lens.

EUV optics. The only supplier to the only supplier. ZEISS SMT makes the mirrors and optical columns inside every ASML machine. ASML states in its own annual report that without them it would effectively cease to be able to conduct its business, and that its output is capped by ZEISS capacity.

Never blocked exports

Germany dossier →

4 of 4 · Japan

Where light becomes a pattern.

Resist coating and developing. One firm holds all of it. Tokyo Electron holds about 92% of coater and developer track systems worldwide, and all of the EUV track. Japan put exactly this tool class under licence in July 2023.

Photoresists and specialty chemicals. A handful of firms, all Japanese. Japanese suppliers dominate the chemicals that lithography depends on. Tokyo restricted three of them against South Korea in 2019 (fluorinated polyimide, photoresist and hydrogen fluoride), which is what proved the chokepoint was real.

Has blocked exports

Japan dossier →

When a position closes, the nations without one have no answer.

Middle powers depend on the positions others hold. The holders have already shown they will use them.

of the 26 nations hold no chokepoint at all.

The 7 that do, in Score order: United States, China, South Korea, Japan, Germany, Taiwan, Netherlands. Counted from the chokepoint register at the time of this update.

In 2019 Tokyo restricted three chemicals that chipmaking depends on, against South Korea. In September 2023 the Netherlands put its EUV lithography machines under licence, and has withheld licences since. On 12 June 2026 Washington ordered a frontier model licensed for foreign users, and its maker switched it off worldwide.

Britain holds no chokepoint. When Washington turned its frontier-model lever, the AI Security Institute reportedly lost its early access to the newest models overnight.

That is the difference between leverage and a favour.

The Index

Research

More

What must the world come to you for?

Mahan’s argument had two halves.

Dover

The fleet

The positions

Two machinepowers, and everyone else.

Lithography.

The machine that prints it.

First, a pattern.

Light that cannot use a lens.

Where light becomes a pattern.

When a position closes, the nations without one have no answer.

Discover your leverage. Then build it.