Machinepower Index / Dossiers / Taiwan
Taiwan
Chokepoint Leverage — Own a step in the supply chain the superpowers cannot work around, and trade being impossible to replace for access, investment and protection.
Score comes from the twelve measurements beneath the three layers. A nation needs all of them at once — world-class models are no use on a grid that cannot power them — so one weak measurement pulls the Score down instead of being averaged away. Potential is the plain average of the three layers. The gap between the two is what being lopsided costs: nothing if a nation is evenly built, more the further its strengths and weaknesses sit apart. The exact formula is on the methodology page.
The three layers
Energy, grids, data centres and silicon — the physical capacity to run models at scale.
Models, alignment capability, standards influence and the talent that produces them.
The capacity to wire AI into the state and the economy while holding public consent.
Where the score comes from
Each layer is the plain average of its four measurements. The Score uses those twelve measurements directly rather than the three averages, because averaging hides things: a 10 next to a 3 comes out as a forgettable 6.5, and you lose both facts. Every measurement is scored 0–10 and marked to show where the number came from.
| Layer | Sub-dimension | Basis | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watts | Planning & Permitting | Assessed | 6.4 |
| Firm Power Capacity | Dataset | 5.5 | |
| Sovereign Compute | Dataset | 5.8 | |
| Hardware & Silicon Access | Dataset | 10.0 | |
| Weights | Frontier Model Output | Dataset | 3.0 |
| Alignment Capability | Assessed | 6.6 | |
| Regulatory Standing | Dataset | 6.9 | |
| Talent Density | Assessed | 6.5 | |
| Will | State Procurement | Dataset | 6.5 |
| Public Sector Adoption | Dataset | 6.9 | |
| Workforce Transition | Assessed | 6.6 | |
| Public Trust | Assessed | 8.0 |
Dataset means the number comes straight from a published source. Assessed means we judged it ourselves, because no dataset measures that thing cleanly — 5 of the 12 here, and 116 of 312 across the Index. The CSV export flags them too.
Sources
Every source below was published within the last 12 months. These are the main ones behind Taiwan's profile. The full list, and the rule on how recent a source has to be, are on the methodology page.
TSMC fabricates the overwhelming majority of the world's leading-edge logic, with its 2nm node ramping since late 2025 — the physical substrate of every frontier training cluster.
View source →Taiwan's Energy Administration records 96.19% import dependence for 2023, making grid resilience the binding constraint on domestic compute expansion and its most acute strategic exposure.
View source →The National Center for High-performance Computing operates Nano 4 (#33) and Nano 5 (#155, 13.06 PFlop/s) — modest against Taiwan's fabrication dominance, reflecting the gap between making compute and owning it.
View source →Chokepoints — what the world cannot get anywhere else
Taiwan controls one of the six steps in building an AI chip, and nobody else can work around it. A step is listed only where the firms that dominate it are based in Taiwan and the government could actually shut it off. See the whole chain.
TSMC holds over 90% of production at the 3nm and 2nm nodes, and roughly two thirds of CoWoS advanced packaging. Every advanced AI chip, whoever designed it, is made on the island. Packaging is the weaker half — Amkor, ASE and Intel hold the rest and are growing, and capacity is moving to Arizona — but it has been the binding constraint on accelerator supply more than once. Taipei lists both as national core key technologies; it has never restricted either.
TSMC →Listed, not scored. None of this lifts the Index Score. The Index measures what a nation can do on its own. This is a different kind of power — what everyone else cannot do without it. Eighteen of the twenty-five nations control nothing like this.
Bottlenecks
These hold Taiwan below its Potential. Its two lowest scores cost it the most: frontier model output at 3.0 (part of Weights) and firm power capacity at 5.5 (part of Watts).
Assessment
Taiwan holds the single most consequential node in the global AI supply chain: TSMC fabricates the overwhelming majority of leading-edge logic. Its "silicon shield" gives it outsized material leverage, but near-total energy import dependence and the absence of sovereign frontier models leave its position leveraged rather than self-sufficient.
The art of the possible
Taiwan's upside is turning being impossible to replace into resilience: energy diversification (LNG, renewables, storage) to harden the grid its fabs depend on, and capturing more of the AI value stack — models and applications — on top of the silicon it already makes for everyone else. The standing trade — silicon nobody can replace, in exchange for security guarantees — is the one bargain no great power can decline.
Strategic play — Chokepoint Leverage
Own a step in the supply chain the superpowers cannot work around, and trade being impossible to replace for access, investment and protection.
The play is editorial, not scored: it names the game Taiwan's measured position supports. Eight plays run across the Index — Total Sovereignty, Strategic Autonomy, Chokepoint Leverage, Diffusion Advantage, Compute Rentier, Specialist Power, Sovereign Capital and Siege Autarky.
Open Taiwan in the live Index → — every source behind every number, the comparison tool and the CSV export.