Machinepower Index / Dossiers / Netherlands

Rank 15 of 25 · Tier 2

Netherlands

Chokepoint Leverage — Own a step in the supply chain the superpowers cannot work around, and trade being impossible to replace for access, investment and protection.

Score5.63
Potential6.60
Bottleneck cost−0.97
Weakest cell: Frontier Model Output at 3.0 Binding layer: Weights Direction: Stagnating Edition: Q3 2026

Score comes from the twelve measurements beneath the three layers. A nation needs all of them at once — world-class models are no use on a grid that cannot power them — so one weak measurement pulls the Score down instead of being averaged away. Potential is the plain average of the three layers. The gap between the two is what being lopsided costs: nothing if a nation is evenly built, more the further its strengths and weaknesses sit apart. The exact formula is on the methodology page.

The three layers

WattsMaterial power
5.8 / 10

Energy, grids, data centres and silicon — the physical capacity to run models at scale.

WeightsIntelligence power · holds the weakest cell
6.6 / 10

Models, alignment capability, standards influence and the talent that produces them.

WillPolitical power
7.4 / 10

The capacity to wire AI into the state and the economy while holding public consent.

Where the score comes from

Each layer is the plain average of its four measurements. The Score uses those twelve measurements directly rather than the three averages, because averaging hides things: a 10 next to a 3 comes out as a forgettable 6.5, and you lose both facts. Every measurement is scored 0–10 and marked to show where the number came from.

LayerSub-dimensionBasisScore
WattsPlanning & PermittingAssessed5.2
Firm Power CapacityDataset4.5
Sovereign ComputeDataset6.2
Hardware & Silicon AccessDataset7.5
WeightsFrontier Model OutputDataset3.0
Alignment CapabilityAssessed7.8
Regulatory StandingDataset9.4
Talent DensityDataset6.2
WillState ProcurementDataset7.7
Public Sector AdoptionDataset9.4
Workforce TransitionAssessed7.2
Public TrustDataset5.3

Dataset means the number comes straight from a published source. Assessed means we judged it ourselves, because no dataset measures that thing cleanly — 3 of the 12 here, and 116 of 312 across the Index. The CSV export flags them too.

Sources

Every source below was published within the last 12 months. These are the main ones behind the Netherlands's profile. The full list, and the rule on how recent a source has to be, are on the methodology page.

ASMLQ2 2026
Lithography Chokepoint
Sole global EUV supplier

ASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography machines, with High-NA systems now shipping — Dutch export policy is therefore a lever over every leading-edge fab on Earth.

View source →
Oxford InsightsJanuary 2026
Government AI Readiness Index 2025
#4 of 195 governments

The Netherlands ranks fourth globally in the 2025 index, reflecting strong digital government capability and data infrastructure.

View source →
TenneT (Grid Operator)2026
Grid Congestion (Netcongestie)
Connection queues in most provinces

Structural congestion on the Dutch electricity grid delays new data-centre connections for years in many regions — the primary physical ceiling on domestic compute growth.

View source →

Chokepoints — what the world cannot get anywhere else

The Netherlands controls one of the six steps in building an AI chip, and nobody else can work around it. A step is listed only where the firms that dominate it are based in the Netherlands and the government could actually shut it off. See the whole chain.

01Has blocked exports What the Netherlands controls
EUV lithography
Who supplies it
The only supplier in the world
Why it matters

ASML is the only company that makes extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. No leading-edge chip can be made anywhere without them, so Dutch export licensing decides who is allowed to build advanced silicon at all. The Netherlands introduced its own controls in September 2023 and has withheld licences since.

ASML →

Listed, not scored. None of this lifts the Index Score. The Index measures what a nation can do on its own. This is a different kind of power — what everyone else cannot do without it. Eighteen of the twenty-five nations control nothing like this.

Bottlenecks

These hold the Netherlands below its Potential. Its two lowest scores cost it the most: frontier model output at 3.0 (part of Weights) and firm power capacity at 4.5 (part of Watts).

Watts (Material)Firm Power Capacity

Assessment

The Netherlands controls the other chokepoint of the hardware stack: ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography in the world, making Dutch export policy a lever of world consequence. Strong governance and the Amsterdam data-centre hub are offset by severe domestic grid congestion and modest sovereign compute scale.

The art of the possible

The Netherlands holds a monopoly the superpowers cannot replicate: every leading-edge fab on Earth needs ASML. Solving grid congestion and pairing lithography with EU gigafactory capacity is worth doing because it makes the lithography position harder to bypass — not because the Netherlands needs a balanced profile it will never have. The trade is explicit: lithography access exchanged for compute guarantees and grid investment — priced early, while the leverage is at its peak.

Strategic play — Chokepoint Leverage

Own a step in the supply chain the superpowers cannot work around, and trade being impossible to replace for access, investment and protection.

The play is editorial, not scored: it names the game the Netherlands's measured position supports. Eight plays run across the Index — Total Sovereignty, Strategic Autonomy, Chokepoint Leverage, Diffusion Advantage, Compute Rentier, Specialist Power, Sovereign Capital and Siege Autarky.

Open Netherlands in the live Index → — every source behind every number, the comparison tool and the CSV export.