Machinepower Index / Dossiers / Ukraine
Rank 23–26 across every aggregation rule tested, from a plain average to a pure minimum. Read the published rank as one point inside that range. How this is tested
Ukraine
Chokepoint Leverage — Own a step in the supply chain the superpowers cannot work around, and trade being impossible to replace for access, investment and protection.
Score comes from the twelve measurements beneath the three layers. A nation needs all of them at once — world-class models are no use on a grid that cannot power them — so one weak measurement pulls the Score down instead of being averaged away. Potential is the plain average of the three layers. The gap between the two is what being lopsided costs: nothing if a nation is evenly built, more the further its strengths and weaknesses sit apart. The exact formula is on the methodology page.
The three layers
Energy, grids, data centres and silicon — the physical capacity to run models at scale.
Models, alignment capability, standards influence and the talent that produces them.
The capacity to wire AI into the state and the economy while holding public consent.
Where the score comes from
Each layer is the plain average of its four measurements. The Score uses those twelve measurements directly rather than the three averages, because averaging hides things: a 10 next to a 3 comes out as a forgettable 6.5, and you lose both facts. Every measurement is scored 0–10 and marked to show where the number came from.
| Layer | Sub-dimension | Basis | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watts | Planning & Permitting | Assessed | 7.0 |
| Firm Power Capacity | Dataset | 2.8 | |
| Sovereign Compute | Assessed | 2.0 | |
| Hardware & Silicon Access | Assessed | 2.5 | |
| Weights | Frontier Model Output | Assessed | 3.0 |
| Alignment Capability | Assessed | 4.0 | |
| Regulatory Standing | Dataset | 6.6 | |
| Talent Density | Dataset | 6.8 | |
| Will | State Procurement | Dataset | 8.2 |
| Public Sector Adoption | Dataset | 9.3 | |
| Workforce Transition | Assessed | 5.0 | |
| Public Trust | Assessed | 8.4 |
Dataset means the number comes straight from a published source. Assessed means we judged it ourselves, because no dataset measures that thing cleanly — 7 of the 12 here, and 123 of 324 across the Index. The CSV export flags them too.
Sources
Every source below was published within the last 12 months. These are the main ones behind Ukraine's profile. The full list, and the rule on how recent a source has to be, are on the methodology page.
Available dispatchable capacity fell to roughly 11.5 GW by February 2026, against installed capacity of about 55 GW before the invasion. This is the lowest firm-power position in the Index, and it is the result of sustained strikes on generation rather than of any policy choice.
View source →Ukraine rose from 54th to 41st in a single year. Its own Ministry of Digital Transformation reported the rank as 40th; the figure used here follows Oxford Insights' published account rather than the government's.
View source →The Diia ecosystem passed 24 million users, with 77 services in the app and more than 150 on the portal. Diia.AI, added in September 2025, delivers government services inside a chat interface rather than only answering questions about them.
View source →More than 300 AI-based innovations are registered with the Brave1 defence-tech cluster and over 70 AI and computer-vision systems are in use by units at the front. Certification runs in months rather than the multi-year cycles typical of allied defence procurement.
View source →3,800 IT companies joined the Diia.City tax regime after 2022, including roughly 200 civilian AI firms — among them Grammarly and Respeecher — and about 200 more building defence AI. Drone manufacturers went from 7 before the war to more than 500.
View source →Avengers Labs holds roughly 5 million annotated battlefield frames, largely drawn from the DELTA combat system. Models trained on it process more than 100,000 drone video streams a month and identify about 70% of targets in real time. Access is licensed by the Ministry under Cabinet of Ministers Resolution No. 310.
View source →Chokepoints — what the world cannot get anywhere else
Ukraine controls one of the six steps in building an AI chip, and nobody else can work around it. A step is listed only where the firms that dominate it are based in Ukraine and the government could actually shut it off. See the whole chain.
Ukraine's Ministry of Defence runs Avengers Labs, a platform built around an annotated dataset of 5 million battlefield frames, most of it drawn from the DELTA combat system. The sensors capture what Ukrainian forces face: tanks, artillery, air defence systems, infantry, and aerial targets including Russian-operated Shahed drones and reconnaissance UAVs. The Ministry states that a dataset of comparable scale and quality is virtually impossible for private companies to build. Models trained on it already run inside DELTA, processing more than 100,000 drone video streams a month and detecting 70% of enemy targets in real time. Access is licensed by the Ministry under Cabinet of Ministers Resolution No. 310 of March 2026, which screens applicants and excludes anyone with ownership, business or sanctions ties to Russia. On 24 August 2026 Kyiv gave Britain first access as a partner country and left everyone else waiting. Weaker on dominance than the hardware entries — Russia holds the mirror image of the same war and other militaries hold their own combat data — but stronger on the lever, which is a working licensing regime rather than a power merely available.
Ministry of Defence of Ukraine →Listed, not scored. None of this lifts the Index Score. The Index measures what a nation can do on its own. This is a different kind of power — what everyone else cannot do without it. Eighteen of the twenty-six nations control nothing like this.
Bottlenecks
These hold Ukraine below its Potential. Its two lowest scores cost it the most: sovereign compute at 2.0 (part of Watts) and hardware & silicon access at 2.5 (part of Watts).
Assessment
Ukraine has the widest spread in the Index: a Will score level with the United States and China, on the lowest firm power of any nation. Diia reaches 24 million people; Brave1 certifies battlefield AI in months. But generating capacity has fallen to roughly 11.5 GW from about 55 GW before the invasion. What Ukraine holds is a different kind of power from the kind the Index measures.
The art of the possible
Ukraine already owns what others cannot manufacture: five million annotated frames of real combat, licensed by its own Ministry of Defence. The gain is not in chasing compute it cannot power, but in turning that licence into a durable export while allied capital rebuilds firm generation.
Strategic play — Chokepoint Leverage
Own a step in the supply chain the superpowers cannot work around, and trade being impossible to replace for access, investment and protection.
The play is editorial, not scored: it names the game Ukraine's measured position supports. Eight plays run across the Index — Total Sovereignty, Strategic Autonomy, Chokepoint Leverage, Diffusion Advantage, Compute Rentier, Specialist Power, Sovereign Capital and Siege Autarky.
Open Ukraine in the live Index → — every source behind every number, the comparison tool and the CSV export.